The NATO air campaign against Yugoslavia has provoked outrage and condemnation from Serbs and others around the world. The bombings have sparked a wave of demonstrations in many countries as protestors vented their anger at the U.S. and NATO. Many protests were organized by Yugoslavians, and some of the demonstrations have turned violent.

In Russia, police repelled an armed attack on the U.S. Embassy in Moscow. Demonstrators in Bucharest had to be prevented from getting close to the American, French and English embassies by Romanian troops. Rallies by Serbs held in Berlin included anti-NATO rhetoric and the burning of an American flag. In Montenegro, a crowd of 800 protestors threw rocks at the American Cultural Center to demonstrate their anger and growing anti-Western sentiments. The Russian and Chinese governments have used state-run media to express relentless criticism of the United States and NATO for their actions. Protests have also taken place in Australia, Canada, Israel, Italy and Macedonia.

The tensions in the Balkans result from centuries of discord, ethnic hatred and political instability. Balkan migrs watch in horror as their homeland is bombed daily. Their emotional and vocal responses are indicative of a new sense of nationalism among Serbs, both in Yugoslavia and in other countries. Even Serb opponents critical of President Milosevic are now defending their President and condemning the NATO bombings. A black bulls-eye has become a unifying symbol for Serbs everywhere in defiance of NATO. The symbol is an outgrowth of Serbian resistance, or "inat", which implies extreme stubbornness and a willingness to take revenge on someone who has wronged you.

The Serbian mindset of resistance and revenge, coupled with the renewed sense of nationalism felt by Serbs around the world, could coalesce into violence or terrorist activities. The possibility exists that such actions could take place in the U.S., although it may be that U.S. and NATO interests abroad are more likely targets. Individual and small groups acting under the supervision of one or two experts pose the greatest threat and potential for violence. Acts of terrorism are relatively easy to undertake. The World Trade Center bombing in New York, the Federal Building in Oklahoma City, and the Embassy bombings in Africa are examples of terrorist activities carried out by individuals or small groups.

Adding to and fueling the unfolding new developments is the intense media coverage given to the on-going bombing campaign over Yugoslavia, the sympathetic treatment of the Albanian refugees and the political and military intrigue evident among the NATO allies. Often just such media attention attracts terrorist operatives or cells determined to demonstrate their zeal.

A specific potential source of terrorist activity are the paramilitary groups operating in Kosovo - the Tigers, Frenki and Chetniks. These paramilitary groups are well trained and very dangerous. U.S. officials believe they are largely responsible for the ethnic cleansing campaign against the Albanians. These paramilitaries possess the training and expertise to carry our terrorist activities. And as non-Government persons, actions by them provide "plausible deniability" for the Milosevic regime. It is not unlikely that if the war escalates these groups could be used to respond through some type of terrorist activity targeted towards the U.S. and other NATO countries.

NATO members are taking the threat of Serb terrorism seriously. In Canada, where there is a large Serb population, the government has refused to make public the names of military personnel participating in the NATO action for fear of retaliation against their families. Canadian officials have also tightened security around the Defense Department headquarters and placed the Royal Canadian Mounted Police on alert.

In the U.S., the FBI is investigating a message faxed to Serbian churches and groups in the United States calling for violence against U.S. military personnel in America. The message says Serbs should kill American military personnel to sway U.S. public opinion against the war. French authorities have tightened security in Paris and other cities to counter the possible threat of terrorism from Serb extremists in France. The French also worry that Milosevic may use a military unit to mount a terrorist bombing campaign in an effort to turn public opinion against the war.

U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials make it clear that they think the stage is set for possible acts of terrorism directed against U.S. or NATO country business interests or individuals. Furthermore, the 50th Anniversary of the formation of NATO, due to be commemorated in Washington, D.C. from April 23 - April 25, 1999, provides a prominent target. It is reported that more than 40 heads of state, 2,000 delegates and 3,000 media representatives are expected in Washington for the NATO Summit. The need for evaluation of individual exposure and possible risks is evident. Appropriate measures to ensure security should be considered and steps designed to minimize risk should be initiated.

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