Vicente Fox - a tall, attractive, articulate businessman turned politico with an impeccable background, taking on the entrenched, corruption-prone bureaucracy. As Fox gets set to take office on December 1, 2000, Mexico awaits his presidency with an uneasy eagerness. President-elect Foxs grand visions include: continued growth of up to 7% per year; the immediate creation of 1 million jobs in Mexico; expanded educational opportunities for rural Mexicans; and curbing corruption, both within and outside the government. It is now time to see if these words can be put into action.

On July 2, 2000, Vicente Fox, Coca-Cola executive turned politician, was elected President of Mexico, in the countrys first election with any resemblance to a true multi-party election. Prior to his election as President, Mr. Fox was the leader of the National Action Party (PAN) and the Governor of the State of Guanajuato, regarded as one of the world's richest mining centers and a booming industrial region situated between Mexico City and Guadalajara. Throughout his campaign and during his post-election visits to the United States and Canada, Mr. Fox has stressed the changes he will make not only in the way the government operates in Mexico, but equally importantly in the Mexican economy. Mr. Fox aims to achieve his primary goals of ending corruption and building a stronger economy by creating an open government accessible to the public, and by enhancing the trade relationship fostered by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) among Mexico, the United States and Canada.

An Open Market Economy

Mr. Fox envisions a true common market, similar in philosophy to the European Union. Specifically, Mr. Fox has expressed his desire to see complementary economic and social policy among the NAFTA partners over the course of the next 20 - 40 years. He sees this as ultimately leading to the formation of a trade union that would strengthen the three countries when establishing trade pacts with other nations. He also believes that a strengthened NAFTA will decrease the gap between Mexican and US wages, eventually stemming the tide of illegal immigration into the US of Mexicans seeking better wages and a higher standard of living.

The basic premise of Mr. Foxs plan, in addition to the already relatively free flow of goods, is to ultimately allow the free flow of workers between Mexico and the US. Mr. Fox is calling for an increase of approximately 75,000 in the yearly quota of legal migrant workers from Mexico to the US, bringing the total annual quota as high as 350,000. This concept is the one most likely to be met with opposition, both in Mexico and in the US: Mexicans would prefer better wages in their own country; Americans fear further loss of jobs. In an effort to preempt the foreseen opposition, Mr. Fox has stated that he believes that if economic stability and higher wages are achieved in Mexico, there will be no need for Mexican workers to come to the US illegally.

Mr. Fox is also calling for funding from the North American Development Bank to finance infrastructure projects in Mexico. He also seeks establishment of North American public and private regional funds to invest in human capital in the poor regions of Mexico, targeted due to the high level of migrants flooding the United States. Education, especially in the rural communities of Mexico, is also vital to Mr. Foxs plan for stemming the flow of illegal immigration to the US.

Accelerated Job Growth

Mr. Fox acknowledges that it is primarily up to Mexico to create employment opportunities for Mexicans in Mexico. However, it is his contention that aid from Canada and the US is in order to boost the Mexican efforts. For Mexicos part, Mr. Fox has stated that it is his immediate aim to create over one million new jobs in Mexico.

Mr. Fox has urged the creation of small to medium-sized entrepreneurial enterprises as a way to expand domestic job growth. Simultaneously, he is calling for an end to the multi-faceted industrial conglomerates, the so-called behemoths that have become representative of Mexican industry during the tenure of the historical leadership of Mexico, that is, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that created the behemoths. These companies were backed by major financial supporters of the PRI, who, with money earned through the behemoths, in turn contributed to the campaigns of the PRI.

While Mr. Fox opposes privatizing Mexicos oil industry, privatization of the countrys electrical and petrochemical sectors are seen as favorable ways to stimulate the economy, especially by opening them up to foreign investment.

The Fight Against Corruption

One alarming aspect of the corruption in Mexico is its ties to the illicit drug trade. The US has stepped up its efforts to block the entry of drugs into the US from Mexico, including increased border patrols. US government agencies feel that Mr. Foxs open border plan will hinder their on-going efforts. In essence, Mr. Fox is clearly calling for an end to the blame game in the international war on drugs and instead wants to focus on international cooperation. He seeks acknowledgment that the drug trade is driven by market forces, that is, supply and demand. In that regard, Mr. Fox has expressed his intent to lobby the US to abandon the requirement for annual certification of Mexican cooperation in the fight against narco-trafficking, in the belief that the policy strains the otherwise healthy relationship between Mexico and the US. In fact, no one in Washington expects this policy to be aborted.

Recognizing that any improvements to the Mexican economy must begin at home, first on Mr. Foxs agenda will be to confront and combat the corruption that has become such a factor in Mexican government. The high level of corruption has led to distrust of their government by the Mexican people and a lack of confidence in the Mexican economy by potential foreign investors. However he plans to accomplish this, Mr. Fox will need a broad and comprehensive plan.

The challenge is exemplified by the fact that the PRI has been greasing the palms of anyone and everyone it came into contact with for the past seven decades. Yet, when President Zedillo refused to distribute the traditional end-of-term loyalty bonuses to the unions, they went on strike, virtually shutting down the country. Six days later, the union bosses had their money in hand. The PRI-led government simply wasnt strong enough to overcome the unions.

If President Zedillo cant keep the unions in check, it is questionable whether Mr. Fox will be able to either. In light of his very vocal endeavor to stem public corruption, starting on the inside with government workers, political analysts are already anticipating widespread public protests and strikes by government workers soon after Mr. Fox takes office.

Corruption has been hidden by Mexicos long-standing policy of confidentiality of official records. Mr. Fox suggests that one way to erode corruption is by creating a transparent government, one that is accountable to the citizens it serves. Mr. Fox has pledged to keep the public informed. That means access to government records. Prominent private citizens have proposed a Freedom of Information Act modeled on the US Act. Mr. Fox has also stated his intention to restructure the government-owned news service to allow it to freely report the news, without political influence.

In spite of good intentions, attempts to alter the publics access to very private government information will be slow in implementation. Before the government can disseminate any information, it must first be analyzed for national security issues. Once data is classified as information that may be permissibly disclosed, the mechanisms for that disclosure must be put in place. For a country that has never done this before, actual disclosure of information - by government workers about government operations - will surely be met with resistance and may prove to be one of the greatest hurdles the Fox Administration has to overcome.

So Who Will Help Fox Run Mexico?

Despite assurances that a Cabinet would be named by September, Mr. Fox had not begun to do so until just days before his scheduled inauguration, in November 2000. Some of those already named are applauded, others are dreaded, by one side of the Mexico/US border or the other.

Due to his failure to name his Cabinet by September 2000, two months after elected, as promised, Mr. Fox has recently been accused of becoming a politician of the same sort as those in the defeated PRI. Criticism has surfaced to the effect that Mr. Foxs administration may prove to be full of empty promises. But Mr. Fox may in fact have been using this time to carefully consider his options. He has many factions to cater to: from the Mexican public in general, to Mexican women aspiring to a long denied political voice; from the United States to Cuba; from his party, the PAN, to the PRI, which continues to dominate the Congress and controls many state governments. Striking a delicate balance in his Cabinet will be the first step along the long path to the sweeping economic and systemic reforms he envisions for Mexico.

As the second largest trading partner with the United States, Mexico cannot be ignored. It can only be hoped that at least some of Mr. Foxs visions become realities so that the Mexico-US relationship can continue to grow and prosper. Not only will Mexico benefit from these plans, US companies will also realize their potential to grow in step with Mexico. A strong Mexican economy is good for Mexico, for its NAFTA partners, and for other foreign business ventures that can expand and build on their international operations.

As Mr. Fox gets set to take office, international businesses should keep a watchful eye on his leadership. Any transition of power, such as that marking the departure of the once unbeatable PRI, is bound to be marked by turbulence. A case in point might be drawn from events as recent as the departure of the Salinas Administration. This particular transition should not cause any undo alarm, as Mexico remains financially stable and an attractive venue for business development and investment. But sound judgment dictates that prudence and intelligence be exercised in any business decision. That includes the new Mexico under Vicente Fox.

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